What is Futures Literacy?
Futures Literacy, according to UNESCO, is “a capability […] that allows people to better understand the role of the future in what they see and do. Being futures literate empowers the imagination, enhances our ability to prepare, recover and invent as changes occur. […] It is a skill that everyone can and should acquire.”
We all anticipate, both in the short term (before crossing a street) and the long term (to make life choices), but we mostly do this unconsciously: we are generally unable to articulate the images of the future on which we base our decisions. And we are certainly not taught to do it, except in the rare Futures Studies departments of selected universities.
Futures Literacy is, above all, about turning these unconscious behaviours into conscious individual and collective practices. According to a leaflet produced by the Future Is Now project, Futures Literacy is about helping persons and collectives to:
- “better understand the role that, through anticipation, the future plays in what they see and do;
- “understand the real-world effects of imagining futures;
- “articulate the differences between various uses of the future, depending on context and purpose.”
Most of the projects identified within WTFutures, but not all, sought to develop some kind of futures literacy in their young participants. For some, it was an end in itself – futures literacy as empowerment –, while for others it was a means to help participants produce better images of the future and be more relevant on the topic at hand. Some used informal, playful, experiential methods, while others relied on more structured forms of teaching.
When is the future? The projects have chosen a great variety of time horizons for their futures. 2040 and 2050 seem to be the most frequent, with some occurrences to (nearby) 2030, 2060, one 2124, and a last project happening 200 years from now (Générations F). The “Futures Literacy Toolbox” from the Future Is Now project has this (non-scientific) recommendation: “Choose a horizon slightly longer than their age (ex. 20 years if they are 15–18 years old). It is a time period that they can relate to, but it is also just beyond their experience, therefore likely to open their minds to new ideas.” Indeed, the choice of time horizon (or even that of not setting any) strongly depends on what is expected from the work. |
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How to generate futures literacy?
Over the years, Futures Studies have produced a large amount of tools and methods, which may at times seem overwhelming. However, the projects studied by WTFutures have found a great variety to develop their own variant of Futures Literacy with their participants:
- Some projects preceded the real futures work by a whole “capacity-building” phase: this is what, for instance, UNICEF Innocenti does with its yearly cohorts of “Youth Foresight Fellows”. In turn, several members of these cohorts did the same on the ground (Climate Futures in Mali).
- Some used specific techniques from the Futures Studies toolbox during their workshops (Kidding the Future)
- Others relied on very informal and even playful practices (Climate Futures in Brussels 2030, Feeling Futures, Pedagogías del Mañana…).
What these approaches have in common, is that they generally do not aim to train aspiring futurists, but rather to equip young people with new “soft skills” that can be used in a large variety of life situations, especially in an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. Together, they show that there is no single correct way to build up one’s futures literacy.
Some foresight techniques used in WTFutures projects (from most to least used; counting resolutely unscientific) | |
Futures wheel: a graphical exploration of direct and indirect consequences or a particular change. | Retro speculation: backcasting from a given future, recounting the likely events that lead from the present to this future. |
Futures triangle: a method to map forces of change and their interaction, categorizing them by their timeframe: the “push of the present”, the “pull of the future”, and the “weight of the past”. | Three horizons: a framework for analyzing a system’s change as an interplay between three “horizons”: the currently dominant system, the desired future, and in between, the messy space of transition. |
Horizon scanning: the detection and examination of potential threats and opportunities in the future. It often differentiates trends (recognizable, consistent, long-term patterns of change) and “weak signals” (novel and unexpected phenomena that may or may not harbor lasting and significant change). | “What if” questions: exploratory prompts used to imagine alternative futures by setting a strong, transformative hypothesis (e.g, “What if extreme weather events permanently reshape global food production zones?” ), and imagining how the future might unfold from there. |
Scenario building: a structured method for developing multiple, plausible descriptions of how the future might unfold. Scenario sets often distinguish between “business as usual” (pursuing current directions), a desirable future, and a pessimistic and/or “disruptive future”. | Time traveler game: an exercise where participants imagine themselves as travelers from the future (or past) to explore how today’s decisions, events, or trends might look in a different time context. |
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): a method for exploring multiple layers of understanding about the future, from surface-level trends to deeper worldviews and myths, in order to reveal underlying causes and assumptions shaping issues. | Design fiction: the practice of creating speculative artifacts to explore and provoke thinking about possible futures and/or the social, ethical, or cultural implications of emerging technologies. |
Polak game: an exercise to help participants reflect on their personal and collective attitudes toward the future by asking two simple questions: “How do you feel about the future?” (optimistic vs. pessimistic), and “Do you believe you can influence it?” (powerful vs. powerless). | S-curve: a graphical representation of the life cycle of a technology, innovation, or trend, showing slow initial growth, rapid acceleration, and eventual maturity or saturation. |